Wealth managers must address the increasing risks of macro disruptions. Macro risks, such as inflation, geopolitical tensions, and policy uncertainty, can negatively impact investment performance.
Macro risks also present opportunities for asset managers. BlackRock points out that: “Macro risk continues to be a meaningful driver of regional stock and bond returns that offers a rich opportunity set for those able to capitalize on economic divergences and price dislocations.”
Wealth managers can also use portfolio resilience strategies to minimize the impact of volatile economic conditions.
Macro Risks in 2026
Policy uncertainty, US federal debt levels, and the future of AI will impact investor returns in 2026.
To start the discussion, here are some key US metrics for 2025:
- Interest rates: The 10-year Treasury yield finished the year at 4.17%
- Consumer prices rose 2.8%, above the Fed’s 2% target
- S&P 500 gained 17.9%
Policy uncertainty
Morgan Stanley explains that “global markets rode some significant volatility driven by tariffs and policy uncertainty.” Since January of 2025, the Trump Administration has made dozens of changes to tariff laws, including multiple updates to China tariff rules.
Many foreign governments have retaliated against the US by introducing tariffs on US exports. This Avalara chart lists tariffs by type and by country.
Frequently changing tariffs make it difficult for businesses to plan, and supply chain management is more difficult. A tariff increase can eliminate the profit margin on a product or service, reducing revenue and forcing down the stock price.
CNN reports that Switzerland, Japan, and Mexico were particularly hard hit by 2025 tariff changes. Each country’s economy contracted during the 3rd quarter of 2025. In addition, the Canadian manufacturing sector has shed 36,500 jobs since the start of the year as US exports have sharply declined.
In 2025, European central banks took a different approach when compared to the Federal Reserve. Central banks in Europe tightened while the Fed loosened financial policies. These different approaches impacted borrowing decisions in different countries.
Keep in mind that inflation is still above target levels for many central banks.
Wellington Management notes that policy responses are increasingly politicized. “Against a backdrop of rising wealth inequality and populism, central banks and governments are slower to tighten policy and quicker to stimulate.”
Policy decisions are influenced by a number of factors, and governments may adjust policies as situations change.
AI risks and opportunities
AI may be a game-changing productivity tool, and AI agents can positively impact how we live and work. AI can drive down the cost of expertise as the technology improves. The speed of AI adoption, however, remains a huge unknown.
McKinsey estimates that increased productivity from generative AI could average $2.6 trillion to $4.4 trillion per year through 2040.
Stifel reports that: “AI remains a double-edged sword: a major source of upside through productivity gains, rising capital investment, and earnings growth, but also a key macro risk should adoption falter or the investment cycle slow materially.”
According to Goldman Sachs: “The consensus estimate among Wall Street analysts for the group’s 2026 capital spending is now $527 billion.” 2026 may see an increase in investment-grade debt issues to fund AI-related CapEx.
It remains to be seen if unemployment rates rise due to increasing AI adoption.
US federal debt levels
The US gross national debt is currently $38.43 trillion, which is $2.25 trillion higher than one year ago. The debt level is roughly 125% of GDP, and higher interest costs decrease funds available for other types of spending.
The 2026 midterm elections will impact how the US Congress deals with increasing debt and federal spending programs. Decisions regarding spending and interest rate levels will affect investors as we move through 2026.
Many wealth managers develop resilient portfolios to quickly adapt to world events.
Building Resilient Portfolios
These strategies help wealth managers to maintain resilience during volatile economic conditions.
Strong portfolio governance
Wealth managers need written procedures and clearly defined roles for the investment team. Once you set an investment strategy, you need to assign tasks to team members.
Assume, for example, that an event disrupts supply chains in Latin America. Management needs to know who is monitoring the situation and communicating the details to the group. With a plan in place, your firm can quickly react to events and make portfolio adjustments.
You can’t prevent disruptions, but you can create a system to respond effectively.
Diversified portfolios
Successful managers create portfolios with a far more diverse set of securities than in past years. Once the investment objectives are determined, consider a large set of investment options.
Diversify based on asset class, geography, sectors, and investing styles. The portfolio can include commodities, real estate (including REITs), and private credit investments.
Take supply chain disruptions, for example. Many businesses are using nearshoring as a strategy to minimize disruptions in the supply chain. Business operations are located in a nearby country to reduce costs and save time.
Some wealth managers invest in sectors that benefit from this growing trend.
Rebalancing
Portfolio rebalancing is a common practice, but volatile conditions may require more frequent rebalancing to maintain target allocations. Wealth managers have tools to assess dozens of variables in real time, and to quickly make informed decisions.
Stress testing
Run periodic stress tests using a variety of “what-if” scenarios. The scenarios can be broad economic events, such as a recession or a large increase in interest rates, or industry-specific changes. Adjust the portfolio based on any weaknesses you find.
Private markets
Private assets may have a lower correlation with publicly traded securities, which increases diversification. BlackRock notes that: “With IPO and M&A activity slowing in recent years, many companies are staying private for longer, elevating the role of private credit and secondary strategies.”
By adding private market assets to a portfolio, investors can participate in innovative industries that are less available in the public markets. AI and digital infrastructure are two examples.
Some of the largest US companies have remained private. For example, the largest stock sale of 2025 was OpenAI’s $40 billion funding round. There is a trade-off: Investors may be required to keep assets invested for 7-10 years.
Some wealth managers are using these private market investment vehicles:
European Long-Term Investment Fund (ELTIF)
ELTIFs make long-term investments into private (unlisted) assets. ELTIFs are regulated investment funds with low minimums, designed to be accessible to all investors. Retail investors can participate in long-term private equity, private debt, and real assets, including infrastructure investments.
The fund is typically structured as a closed-ended fund with a defined maturity date.
The UK Long Term Asset Fund (LTAF)
This type of fund was introduced in 2021 to enable investments in long-term, illiquid assets such as private credit, venture capital, private equity, real estate, and infrastructure.
Asset-based financing and private high-grade credit are two types of private market investments that are expected to gain assets in 2026. In fact, JP Morgan is building an investment banking team to “help companies raise private capital as an alternative to going public.”
Successfully navigating macro risks requires discipline and constant monitoring of changing conditions. A volatile economic environment may be the new normal, and wealth managers must adapt.
